Greater Manchester Burglary Down 24% | What the Stats Hide

Greater Manchester's burglary rate dropped 24% in the year to September 2025. GMP published the ONS neighbourhood crime figures on 29 January 2026, and the headline is genuinely good news. More than 500 fewer households a month are going through that sick feeling of coming home to a kicked door. That matters.

But here's the thing. Good news in crime statistics is exactly when complacency sets in. And complacency, in my experience turning up to houses on Brownlow Fold and Lostock after a break-in, is how people end up in the 76% that still get burgled.

What the 24% Drop Actually Means

The fall is real and it's sustained. It's not a blip. Across Greater Manchester, burglary has been trending down since the 2021 peak, and credit where it's due to GMP's neighbourhood policing and the deterrent effect of better-secured housing stock.

But buried in GMP's own data is a detail worth paying attention to: burglars frequently target neighbouring properties after a first successful strike on a street. If your neighbour on a Westhoughton terrace gets hit, the same person or crew is likely to return to the same area within weeks. They know the layout, the access points, which properties have dogs, which don't. A falling citywide average doesn't mean your particular street is safer. It might mean the activity has simply shifted.

And seasonality matters more than annual averages. We're heading into summer. Longer evenings feel safer, so people get lazy. Windows get left on the latch. Back doors stay open while people are in the garden. The ONS data covers the year to September 2025, which includes last summer. It's a reminder, not a reason to relax.

Summer Creates Specific Vulnerabilities

This is the bit the statistics don't capture well. A 24% drop in completed burglaries doesn't tell you how many attempted entries were made that didn't succeed, or how many went unreported. What I can tell you from jobs across Horwich and the BL6 postcode is that summer brings a different set of risk factors.

Flat above a shop on Chorley New Road with a sash window left open on a hot night. A semi-detached on Wallsuches with a composite door where the occupant hasn't been lifting and pulling the handle before turning the key, so the multipoint lock hasn't been engaging properly for months. A small unit on Middlebrook with an old five-lever mortice that last had its keep checked before the pandemic.

None of those households would show up in a crime statistic until they do. By which point it's too late.

The Gaps That Actually Get Exploited

Let me be specific about what burglars are actually targeting, because it's not always what people expect.

Cylinder snapping on uPVC doors. Still the most common method on residential properties across BL6, BL5 and into BL7. If your uPVC door has a standard euro cylinder without anti-snap protection, a burglar can break it with a screwdriver and a kick in under 30 seconds. An Ultion or Avocet ABS TS007 3-star cylinder costs between £40 and £80 fitted. That's the single most cost-effective security upgrade most Horwich homeowners can make.

Multipoint locks that aren't engaging. A uPVC or composite door with a GU, Fuhr or Maco multipoint lock is very strong when it's working correctly. When the mechanism is worn or the door has dropped on its hinges, the hooks and bolts don't seat properly. The door looks locked. It's not really locked. I see this regularly on properties built in the late 1990s and 2000s in Lostock and Adlington.

Accessible rear windows. An open or poorly latched casement window at the back of the house, screened by a fence. Fifteen seconds to get through. Most window handles on older installations offer no real resistance. Locking window restrictors, or simply replacing worn espagnolette locks on timber frames, deals with this cheaply.

Padlocks on outbuildings that don't meet SS312 Diamond standard. The shed on an Aspull semi with a £12 hasp and a no-brand padlock. Bolt croppers. Done. If you've got tools or bikes worth protecting, a Sold Secure Diamond padlock and a shrouded hasp is the floor, not a luxury.

The Landlord Angle

If you're a landlord with properties across Horwich, Blackrod or into Westhoughton and Bromley Cross, the 24% drop might feel like a reason to defer that cylinder upgrade you've been putting off. Don't.

Tenant turnover creates a specific risk. A property vacant between tenancies, even for two weeks, is more exposed than an occupied one. And if you're on a standard assured shorthold tenancy cycle and haven't checked or rekeyed between tenants in the last 12 months, you've got no idea how many key copies are out there.

BS8621 key-registering cylinders, where copies can only be cut by an authorised locksmith with the card, cost more upfront but reduce the rekeying cycle significantly. For a landlord with four or five properties, the maths works out over two to three years. Worth thinking about.

So What Should You Actually Do?

Not a full home security overhaul. Most people don't need that. But a quick honest check:

• Does your front door cylinder have anti-snap protection? If you're not sure, look at the cylinder. If you can see a plain brass barrel with no visible anti-snap line or break point, it probably doesn't.
• When you last locked your uPVC door, did you lift the handle firmly upward before turning the key? If that's news to you, the multipoint lock likely isn't engaging.
• Have any ground-floor windows got functioning locks rather than just a latch? Especially at the rear.
• If you had a neighbour burgled in the last six months, has anything changed about your own security since?

None of this is scaremongering. The 24% drop is real. But it's a citywide trend, not a guarantee for your particular house on your particular street this particular summer.

If you want someone to take a look, Locks Local covers Horwich and the BL postcodes. Average arrival under 30 minutes on most jobs. Pricing is quoted honestly before any work starts. Give us a call and we'll tell you straight whether there's a real problem or not.